Uncertainty modelling for threat analysis

Accurate modelling of information and knowledge is central to the modern command and control (C2) process. Without models and a language for describing them, it is impossible to collaborate on C2. All information which enters a C2 system will be uncertain, and hence it is important to be able to model the uncertainty in a way that makes it possible for us to understand it. Some kinds of knowledge can be embedded into reasoning systems designed to help humans sense-making. In order to do this, it is necessary to obtain the relevant knowledge (from humans, sensors and databases of background information), to model it in an appropriate way, and to design computer tools that use these models. In this paper, we describe some aspects of knowledge and information that are important both for understanding the C2 process and for constructing computer tools that help humans achieve situation awareness. We describe positive and negative information, and the concept of indicators as well as how they can be used in a computer tool for threat analysis.